blockchainsplitgame|煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：煤价旺季反弹可期 看好板块进攻属性

This week (April 29 to April 30) the spot price of thermal coal at the port rose 3 yuan / ton from the previous month to 827 yuan / ton. On the supply side, the recent increase in coal mine safety inspections and the completion of monthly production tasks in a small number of coal mines have led to a tightening of supply. With the early completion of the overhaul of the Daqin line and the reduction of freight charges by various road bureaus, we expect the coal market supply to be stable in the follow-up. The average daily transfer volume of the four ports around the Bohai Sea this week is 180.Blockchainsplitgame.930000 tons, down 2% from last week.Blockchainsplitgame.570000 tons, down 1.40%. On the demand side, with the significant rebound in national temperature, the daily consumption of coastal power plants continues to decline, the overall inventory of superimposed power plants is more sufficient, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is poor. In addition, the real estate and infrastructure industry is still in the bottom adjustment stage, the overall start-up performance of the building materials industry and coal purchase demand are also lower than expected, and the overall demand performance is relatively weak. The average daily output of the four ports around the Bohai Sea this week was 1.7739 million tons, an increase of 4900 tons, or 0.27%, over last week.BlockchainsplitgameThe daily average number of Anchorage ships was 117, an increase of 15, or 14.17 percent, over the previous week. On the inventory side, the inventory in the four ports around the Bohai Sea is 24.124 million tons, an increase of 797000 tons, or 3.42 percent, over last week. The off-peak season switches, the coal price adjustment ends, waiting for the peak season coal price to rise. Our analysis shows that: from the end of March to the middle of April, due to the lower-than-expected growth rate of real estate and infrastructure investment, the demand for coal in the non-power industry was extremely weak, and the number of ships in the port Anchorage around the Bohai Sea once dropped to about 60. Although the coal demand of the power industry is higher than expected, the coal price is more significantly affected by the non-electricity demand, so the coal price falls more than expected. However, in May, power companies need to start hoarding in order to "meet the peak and spend the summer", and it is expected that power procurement will improve; in addition, the impact of production safety supervision continues to exceed expectations, superimposed old mines withdraw, and the annual raw coal output is expected to be reduced by 100 million tons. The supply contraction in the power industry demand season will magnify the contradiction between supply and demand, so it is expected to promote coal prices to rebound again. We raised the price of coal to 1200 yuan in May.BlockchainsplitgameThe forecast was revised to 1200 yuan in June, and the expectation of coal price remains optimistic. Valuation and suggestions: plate offensive investment is just around the corner, giving priority to the allocation of thermal coal elastic targets. After the disclosure of the quarterly report at the end of April, the bearish release; in May, with the strengthening of coal prices, the opportunity for plate investment attack allocation is coming. Considering entering the peak season of traditional thermal coal, we think that the price of coking coal will rise with the price of thermal coal, but the price of thermal coal is more flexible, and the high elastic targets of thermal coal are Guanghui Energy, Haohua Energy and Shaanxi Coal Industry. China Shenhua, which is the target of high dividend, it is suggested to pay attention to Yanzhou Mining Energy, which is the highly elastic target of thermal coal. Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected; supply protection is stronger than expected, and coal prices fall sharply. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

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