plasticplayingcards| Securities development strategy: Who is buying the leader? The proportion of passive fund holdings continues to increase

If you want to speculate in the stock market, you can see the research report of Jin Kirin analysts.PlasticplayingcardsAuthorityPlasticplayingcardsProfessional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap the potential theme opportunities!

Yao looks forward to the future.

Introduction: since the beginning of the year, the leading style has become an important source of excess income, and the market consensus on the leader has been formed. Which funds are buying bibcock? Why do we continue to emphasize that incremental capital allocation brings leading excess returns? See the report for details:

I. passive Index Fund: continuous expansion and focus

In recent years, the passive fund continues to expand, the proportion of shares in the fund's heavy positions continues to increase, and its marginal increment has a more significant impact on the market. Compared with active funds, passive funds have increased more significantly since the beginning of the year. Passive index funds have accelerated capacity expansion in the past 2-3 years. By the end of 2024Q1, the market value of A shares held by passive index funds has risen to about 1.996 trillion yuan. More importantly, in the current stock market capitalization of partial public offering funds, the proportion of shares held by passive funds continues to rise, and its impact on the market style is more significant. By the end of 2024Q1, among the Top50 heavy stocks of partial public offering funds (passive index + active partial stock), the proportion of shares held by passive funds has jumped to 45%.Plasticplayingcards.7%, up from 22% at the end of 2021Plasticplayingcards.9% almost doubled.

From the perspective of product structure, the market wide base class ETF represented by Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 received the most inflow. As of May 10, there has been a net inflow of 327.364 billion yuan in equity ETF since the beginning of this year, of which the broad base ETF has a net inflow of 345.821 billion yuan, while other categories have a small net outflow. The broad base class ETF is the core increment source, and the most inflow is the ETF products that track the CSI 300 index (258.8 billion yuan, 67.7%). As a result, the CSI 300 Index also has significant excess returns this year.

Insurance funds: premium expansion, focus on the leader

Premium expansion, and the willingness to increase positions is expected to usher in a rise. On the debt side, as of March 2024, the cumulative premium income of insurance companies has maintained double-digit growth, which is expected to drive the continued inflow of dangerous capital. From the asset side, by the end of 2023, the equity position of risky assets has been at a historic low, and the proportion of stocks and funds has fallen back to 12.02%. Later, as the market repairs, its willingness to increase positions is expected to rise.

At the individual stock level, risk Q1 focuses on flowing into the leaders of various industries, including Guizhou Moutai, Lixun Precision, China Telecom, Zhejiang Merchant Bank and so on.

Third, active fund: position "division must be closed", re-focus on the leader

Referring to the first quarterly report of the Fund, from the distribution of heavy stocks, the concentration of fund positions has increased again. Our judgment in our annual strategy on the imminent watershed of 2024 positions from "decentralization" to "concentration" has been verified. A new round of positions from "decentralized" to "centralized", from market capitalization to focus leader, the turning point of core assets may have emerged.

In addition, from the perspective of Jiancang individual stocks, they are basically concentrated in the core assets represented by the leaders of various industries. Among these figures, Changjiang Electric Power and Cosco Haineng, which are in the direction of dividends, have benefited from the continuous catalysis of the AI industry wave, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Shanghai Power shares as representatives, and new momentum leaders whose stock prices have reached record highs. There are also leading household appliances such as Midea and Haier, driven by sea logic, and traditional enterprises such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum Industry, which are driven by rising commodity prices and new high gold prices. In addition, key targets of core assets that have underperformed in the past few years, such as the Ningde era, Wuliangye and Sany heavy Industries, have also stabilized and repaired, or even risen significantly this year.

Fourth, northward funds: recent substantial return, still focus on the leader

Foreign investment has continued to return since the beginning of the year. Since late January, the return of foreign capital has also contributed an important increase to the market. During the period from January 22 to May 14, the total net inflow of capital going northward was nearly 100 billion yuan, reaching 99.3 billion yuan. In terms of direction, northward capital flows into banks, food and beverages, non-ferrous metals and other industries.

At the level of individual stocks, foreign investment is still focused on the leader, focusing on large market capitalization leaders in food and beverage, new energy, banking and other industries during the year.

Conclusion: the leader will continue to be an important source of excess income, and the core assets United front is being reshaped.

Incremental funds determine the market style, throughout the year, ETF, insurance, foreign capital these types of incremental capital allocation direction are focused on the leader, active fund positions are also concentrated to the leader again. Therefore, we believe that the leader will continue to be an important source of excess returns, and the United front of core assets is being reshaped.

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