fishingrodandreel| Vegetable oil oi2409 contract capital outflow is 9000 yuan/ton, palm oil exports are reduced by 9.6% and inventories are expected to be superimposed: strong shocks are expected

News summary

Supply and demand of vegetable oil remain stablefishingrodandreel, affected by macro liquidity needs to be observedfishingrodandreel; Palm oil export data is weak, domestic imports have increased significantly, and spot transaction prices have hit new lows; peanut spot market sentiment is weak and may fluctuate in the short term.

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Supply and demand in the vegetable oil market remained stable, and prices were facing pressure from capital outflows. Based on industrial logic, the supply and demand relationship of domestic and foreign vegetable oil remained unchanged from last week, with no significant change. Market analysis showed that after the price of the main contract oI2409 climbed to around 9000 yuan/ton, the market observed capital outflows, forming a seesaw situation of price fluctuations, and investors were not very enthusiastic about further price increases. At the same time, macro liquidity is gradually increasing due to the rise in the prices of non-ferrous and precious metals, and inflation expectations in commodity markets have increased accordingly. As an agricultural product, the price of vegetable oil has a certain lag in responding to changes in liquidity, and the impact needs to be continuously monitored.

The weather in the palm oil producing area has improved, and domestic imports have dropped significantly year-on-year. The palm oil producing area is expected to maintain high temperature and humidity for a period of time, but the temperature and rainfall will gradually return to normal levels. The latest AmSpec data shows exports were 81 per cent in the first 20 days of Mayfishingrodandreel.4,000 tons, down 9.9% from the same period in Aprilfishingrodandreel.6%, indicating that export data is not ideal and inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. Indian trader data showed that palm oil imports reached 680,000 tons in April, a year-on-year increase of 40.9%. Chinese customs data shows that the cumulative import volume of palm oil in the first four months was 700,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 43.3%. In April, palm oil imports were 148,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.01%. Data from the Grain and Oil Business Network showed that the spot transaction volume last week was 3,300 tons, a decrease of 10,950 tons from the previous week. The average transaction price was 8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price hit a new low in nearly seven months. Commercial inventories fell to 399,750 tons. Despite the recent increase in ship-buying activities, downstream market demand is still dominated by just-needed demand. Based on the market conditions of other oils and crude oil, the main palm oil futures contract 2409 has followed the rise starting on Friday and performed strongly in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the supply side before the end of the month. It is expected that the price fluctuations of the 2409 contract may remain volatile and strong in the short term. trend.

Spot prices in the peanut market continue to fall, and expectations for an increase in production area come to fruition. With the continuous opening of wheat in Henan, considering the pressure of vacating stocks and funds, grassroots vendors have increased their enthusiasm to sell goods, resulting in spot market prices continuing to fall during the weekend, compared with Friday. Compared with Friday, the currency price fell by about 200 yuan/ton. Mainstream oil mills have also continuously lowered their purchase contract prices, and some branch factories have announced that they will stop operating in the short term. Overall spot market sentiment is sluggish. Market research results show that the expected increase in planting area in the new production season in Northeast China has been basically determined. Against the background that there has been no significant improvement on the demand side, the pace of loading goods in the production areas and the willingness of oil mills to purchase have had a greater impact on market fluctuations. It is expected that the market may continue to show a volatile trend in the short term.

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