SafariSpinSafari|牧原股份：生猪产业链一体化加速，2024-2026年净利润预期高增

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Muyuan shares earned 1108 yuan in 23 years.SafariSpinSafari. 6.1 billionSafariSpinSafari, lose 42%SafariSpinSafari.63 billion, lower than the median forecast. The scale of breeding increased by 4.27% over the same period last year, and the slaughtering capacity increased by 80%. The management advantage is obvious, and the operating cash flow is greatly increased. The pig cycle is improving, the net profit of returning to the mother is expected to increase in 24-26 years, and the "buy" rating is maintained. Risks include capacity depletion and lower-than-expected consumption.

Text of news flash

[Muyuan shares (002714) revenue decline net profit to loss]

The integration of the pig industry chain accelerated, and the operating income of Muyuan shares reached 110.861 billion yuan in 23 years, down 11.19% from the same period last year. In the same period, the company's return net profit suffered a loss of-4.263 billion yuan, but the annual loss was lower than the median forecast. Despite the impact of the downward pig cycle, the company still maintains a leading level in the pig farming business.

Muyuan shares recorded 63.816 million aquaculture business sales in 23 years, an increase of 4.27% over the same period last year, and plans to further increase its production volume by about 10% in 24 years. The slaughtering business also showed strong growth, with 13.26 million pigs slaughtered in 23 years, an increase of 80% over the same period last year, and capacity utilization rose to 46% from 25% in 22 years, reflecting the deepening integration of the pig industry chain.

Scientific management promotes the value of the company, and Muyuan shares pay attention to management, realize scientific and fine organization and management from top to bottom, and create significant value with aquaculture management as the core. In terms of breeding efficiency and cost optimization, the average overall survival rate of 23-year pig farming reached 85%, the daily gain was about 800g, and the average complete cost of pig breeding decreased to 15.0 yuan / kg, which was lower than that of 22 years. Operating cash flow has also improved, with a net operating cash inflow of 9.89 billion yuan in 23 years, and a year-on-year increase of 231.48% to 5.07 billion yuan in 24Q1.

Relying on the advantage of breeding cost, the company is expected to continue to improve its breeding performance, optimize its debt structure and increase its dividend ratio with the help of improved cash flow, and gradually become a leading value enterprise in the pig industry.

The trend of the pig cycle has improved. Muyuan shares, as a leading enterprise with obvious scale and management cost advantages, is expected to benefit from the improving trend of the pig cycle under the promotion of gradual contraction of industry supply and recovery of consumption. As of March 24, the national stock of fertile sows is 39.92 million, which is still on the high side, but the overall production capacity reduction of the industry is expected to further boost the long-term expectation of the pig market.

According to the investment suggestion, the net profit of Muyuan shares from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 12.86 billion yuan, 27.79 billion yuan and 31.09 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS is 2.35,5.09,5.69 yuan respectively, corresponding to 18.54,8.58,7.67 times of PE for 23,24 and 25 years, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk tips, we need to pay attention to the pig industry capacity reduction, pork consumption is not as expected and other potential risks.

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