abu6500c3ctmagelite|牧高笛(603908)：24Q1代工业务企稳回升 维持高分红比例

Investment points: the company publishes its annual report of 2023 and quarterly report of 2024.Abu6500c3ctmageliteThe 23-year performance was slightly lower than expected, and the 24Q1 performance was in line with expectations. 1) the increase in income in 23 years, the pressure on contract manufacturing business and the increase in expense rate led to a decline in profits. 23-year revenue 14Abu6500c3ctmagelite.600 million yuan, up 1.4% over the same period last year, the net profit returned to the mother was 110 million yuan, down 24.1% from the same period last year, and the non-net profit was 100 million yuan, down 25.0% from the same period last year. The domestic camping industry returns to a healthy pace of development, and the contract manufacturing business is affected by downstream destocking. 2) 23Q4 is dragged down by the contract manufacturing business, and the profit side decreases greatly. 23Q4's revenue was 300 million yuan, an increase of 8.2% over the same period last year, and its net profit was a loss of 3 million yuan (22Q4's profit was 10 million yuan). 3) 24Q1 revenue resumes growth and the profit side is more flexible. 24Q1's revenue was 360 million yuan, an increase of 3.7% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 30 million yuan, an increase of 9.3% over the same period last year. The rebound of export contract manufacturing business led to a rebound in performance. 4) issue the profit distribution plan for 2023: the proposed cash dividend per share is 1.2 yuan (including tax), with a cash dividend ratio of 75%. At the same time, it is proposed to increase the share capital by 0.4 shares per share with the capital reserve. Independent brand business to achieve channel expansion, the bottom of the contract manufacturing business rebounded. The main results are as follows: 1) the independent brand business develops healthily, and the development trend of Damu line and small pastoral joining channel is better. In 23 years, the revenue of independent brand business was 930 million yuan, an increase of 31% over the same period last year. According to the separation of independent brand business, the revenue from camping equipment / outdoor clothing increased by 33% and 17% respectively over the same period last year. The revenue of online / offline / direct camp / franchise of small animal husbandry increased by 3.5% / 62.9% / 11.1% / 27.9% respectively compared with the same period last year. 24Q1, the overall domestic sales environment is weak, and the business income of independent brands is 140 million yuan, down 8.6% from the same period last year. According to different channels, the revenue of online / offline / small pastoral direct camp / small pastoral franchise has dropped 20.8% / 2.3% / 11.6% / 10.7% respectively compared with the same period last year. 2) the 24Q1 contract manufacturing business is obviously picking up and the momentum is rising. In 23 years, the income of contract manufacturing business was 530 million yuan, down 26% from the same period last year, which was greatly affected by the destocking of downstream customers. 24Q1, contract manufacturing business income of 215 million yuan, an increase of 14.0% over the same period last year, with obvious signs of warming up at the bottom. The gross profit margin rises steadily, the brand business strength, the management team upgrade causes the short-term expense rate to increase. The 23-year gross profit margin was 28.3%, unchanged from the same period last year. The expansion of the scale of independent brands and increased marketing investment led to an increase in the sales expense rate by 1.8pct to 8.6% compared with the same period last year. Upgrading the core management team and upgrading the system led to an increase in management expense rate to 0.6pct to 6.6%, and the net profit rate fell by 2.5pct to 7.3%. 24Q1 gross profit margin increased 1.2pct to 27.7% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin of contract manufacturing business, sales / management expense rates fell year-on-year, 1.7pct/ increased 2.1pct, and the final net profit margin increased 0.4pct to 8.9% year-on-year. Mugao Di deeply ploughed the outdoor industry, the independent brand business developed healthily, the contract manufacturing business stabilized and rebounded, and maintained the "overweight" rating. The penetration of the domestic outdoor industry has increased, and the company has realized the expansion of outdoor independent brand business by virtue of leading brands, products and channels. As the brand business is in the expansion period, the sales expense rate for 24-25 years is raised to 9.0% Universe 8.5% (originally 7.3% Universe 7.0%). Therefore, the profit forecast for 24-25 years is lowered and the profit forecast for 26 years is increased. The estimated net profit of homing in 24-26 years is 1.3pm pm 2.0 million yuan (formerly 170.00 million RMB RMB in 24-25 years), corresponding to PE of 17-13-10 times. Give the company a 24-year 19-fold PE valuation (comparable to the company's 24-year average PE) and maintain an "overweight" rating. Risk tips: the increase in industry penetration is not as expected; competition in the industry intensifies; and the downturn in overseas demand is a drag on the growth of contract manufacturing business. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

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