pokerhousenearme| In-depth report on the household appliance industry: Electric two-wheeled vehicles: The 2024 policy year will catalyze the industry to be optimistic about sector performance and market fermentation

The central and local governments build a joint forcePokerhousenearmeIn the trade-in policy, electric bicycles explicitly mentioned the promotion of the "trade-in" policy in 2024. We believe that the electric two-wheeler industry may have received higher attention at the policy level, and the policy has the following four major time points: March 13, the State Council issued a notice on the issuance of the "Action Plan for promoting large-scale equipment upgrading and Consumer goods Trade-in", and a new round of trade-in was officially launched. On April 2, the National Development and Reform Commission hosted the first symposium on large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods. Yadi Science and Technology participated in the discussion and exchange, indicating that the two-wheeled electric vehicles belong to the potential scope of the trade-in policy, and the development of the industry is expected to be supported by the policy. On April 12, 14 departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, jointly issued the Action Plan for promoting the Trade-in of Consumer goods. The report proposes to increase fiscal policy support and adhere to the linkage between central finance and local governments. At the same time, with reference to the relevant practices of trade-in for cars and home appliances, the relevant departments study to promote the trade-in of electric bicycles and bring them into the scope of trade-in from the level of policy announcement. On April 30, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration and the State Fire and Rescue Bureau jointly issued the "Standard conditions for Electric Bicycle Industry", which put forward requirements from seven aspects: enterprise layout, process equipment, product quality and management. The response speed of local governments is faster than expected. Up to now, Guangdong and Hunan have issued relevant documents and guidance documents; Jiangsu Yancheng, Tianjin and other areas have introduced preferential policies of trade-in subsidies. Trade-in or promote the early release of demand, the revision of the new national standards and regulatory conditions to enhance the industry concentration of the total industry or benefit boost, we take the retention and annual sales as the underlying data, it is estimated that the trade-in policy has the potential to stimulate market sales of 948,000,000 units in 2024-2025. On the consumer side, the implementation of the new national standard and the policy of exchanging old for new complement each other to accelerate the clearance of low-quality irregular products. Leading compliance operation + with the advantage of the number of products selected into the whitelist, over-enjoy the policy to release dividends. In the trade-in policy to gradually refine the landing at the same time, compared with the previous more stringent electric two-wheeler non-compliance products special rectification work is carried out at the same time, the strengthening of supervision is expected to speed up the clearance of the tail of the industry. At the same time, the new national standard of electric vehicles will be revised and reviewed, and we expect that the implementation level will be better landed, driven by the old-for-new policy, and better stimulate the release of market demand for purchase. From the enterprise point of view, the promulgation of the "normative conditions for the Electric Bicycle Industry" will promote the healthy development of the industry, and the degree of concentration is expected to be further concentrated. The "normative conditions" make clear provisions on the automation rate, the original value of testing equipment, and the number of independently developed models, which will have a further impact on the profitability of small and medium-sized manufacturers. We believe that this will accelerate the clearance of small and medium-sized manufacturers and promote further concentration of the industry. On the other hand, after the introduction of the document, the cost side of enterprises put forward higher requirements, it is expected that the probability of price war in the industry will be further reduced. Taking home appliances as a lesson, we are optimistic about the performance of the two-wheeler sector, the policy direction of market fermentation and the performance of the sector. we expect that the subsidy form and intensity related to the replacement of old-for-new vehicles are similar to those of home appliances. From 2009 to 2011, the sales of the home appliance industry with the trade-in policy reached 342 billion yuan, the market potential was successfully stimulated, and the implementation of the policy achieved remarkable results. Electric two-wheelers and home appliances are both easy to consume optional consumer goods; and due to obstacles in the implementation of the new national standard, the proportion of products with non-compliance and safety risks in electric two-wheelers may be higher than that in the home appliance industry, under the stimulation of the trade-in policy, the electric two-wheeler market may be able to reproduce the bright performance of the home appliance industry in the previous trade-in. In terms of plate prices and individual stock valuations, the trend of increase in the household appliances sector during the trade-in period (2009-2011) is much higher than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen in the same period. In contrast, in the two-wheeler sector, since March 2023, due to the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations and industry competition, the terminal demand for two-wheelers has slowed down, and the trends of the two major leaders in the industry, Yadi Holdings and Emma Technology, are weaker than the market. We are optimistic that the policy of replacing old for new will gradually release to drive the market to pick up. Emma Technology and Yadi Holdings PE three-year quantiles are only 34.PokerhousenearmeAll of them are in the lower quartile, and there is still enough room for the upward movement of the valuation center. Recommend Yadi, Emma and company 9 with sufficient growth momentum to enjoy excess policy dividends. Company 9: 2024Q1 has higher revenue and profits than expected, and is optimistic about the rapid growth of new categories such as all-terrain vehicles / mowing robots under channel expansion and high profit flexibility in the next 2-3 years under scale effect. (2) Yadi Holdings: attending the symposium on trade-in for new ones, the advantages of domestic quality improvement and efficiency improvement and overseas continuous development are significant. (3) Emma Technology: it is optimistic that the volume and price of products will continue to rise in 2024 + re-issue equity incentives to demonstrate confidence in development. Risk hints: policy landing is not as expected, industry price war risk, macroeconomic risk. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

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