gamersjakarta|甲醇：单边不畅看下套利吧！

Core point: neutral prices fluctuated in a narrow range after the fall of high prices last weekGamersjakartaAlthough there are many stops in olefin units, the current inventory is absolutely low to support the disk price, and the overall commodity market sentiment is strong under the background of strong macro sentiment, and short-term methanol is still the transition stage from strong reality to weak expectation. On the supply side, both mainland and international start-up rates rebounded slightly this week, but imports are still low, making it difficult for port inventories to accumulate; on the demand side, traditional demand is gradually entering the off-season, and olefin demand is gradually weakened by negative feedback parking. Overall, although the supply side rebounded and demand expectations weakened, but the current low inventory is still the main contradiction, disk prices are also difficult to fall, but in the process of supply and demand from strong to weak, short performance-to-price ratio is better but the process may be more uncomfortable, you can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities, 9-1 anti-arbitrage and low PP-3MA spread to expand.

Arbitrage 9-1 anti-arbitrage every high; PP-3MA spread low to do expansion, band operation.

Thermal coal: neutral port and inland coal prices rebounded slightly, expected to strengthen during the peak season, but the range is limited

Domestic supply: most of the devices have been restarted, and the mainland supply has rebounded slightly, but the current maintenance loss is still on the high side.

Imports: too much short-term arrival in Hong Kong is still difficult to sell, and the increase of imports is expected to continue to be delayed.

Downstream demand: short traditional downstream demand weakens seasonally, MTO operating rate falls sharply, and demand weakens.

Upstream profits: short mainland prices are lower, production enterprises' profits continue to shrink but still perform well

MTO profit: short MTO profit rebounded but still on the low side, PP-3MA spread is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years

Inventory: too many ports continue to go to the warehouse, the mainland accumulates slightly, and the overall inventory level remains low.

There is still too much overhaul.

The operating rate rebounded.

As of the week of May 23, the operating rate of methanol plants in China was 69.Gamersjakarta.5%, including 74.6% of the coal-to-methanol plant, 50.3% of the natural gas-to-methanol plant and 55.3% of the coke oven gas-to-methanol plant.

There are too many maintenance devices.

The methanol plant of Yulin Yankuang Phase I and Phase II began to be overhauled on May 26. the rotation inspection time of the two phases was not less than 30 days. Huating 600000 ton plant was stopped for overhaul last weekend and is expected to last one month. Inner Mongolia Rongxin 90 and Cabelle 85 were restarted last week. At present, there are still many maintenance devices.

Profits in the mainland have fallen slightly

Coal prices rebounded slightly, but the recent decline in methanol prices in the mainland led to a decline in profits of coal-to-methanol plants in the mainland; profits from natural gas to methanol and coke oven gas to methanol fell but remained profitable. The profit of theoretical coal production in Inner Mongolia is-196.6 yuan / ton, the profit of southwest natural gas plant is 70 yuan / ton, and the profit of methanol from Hebei coke oven gas is 470 yuan / ton.

International operating rate rebounded slightly

Iran's ZPC two devices are scheduled to restart in nearly two weeks, BUSHER is still in parking. The Malaysian installation was restarted on May 20, with a 1.75 million-ton plant in the United States for maintenance, one in Venezuela and one in Norway. Some devices have been restarted, and international operating rates have rebounded slightly.

Olefin negative feedback continues.

The olefin operating rate remains low.

The operating rate of the MTO plant rebounded slightly, and due to the restart of some integrated devices during the week, as of May 23, the operating rate of the domestic MTO plant was 72.7%.

MTO profits have rebounded from low levels, but they are still on the low side. With the continuous compression of MTO profits, the maintenance plan of MTO plant has increased significantly in the near future. under the expectation of weaker demand, the high price of methanol will lead to a small repair of olefin profits.

More olefins are overhauled

Nanjing Chengzhi Phase I parking maintenance on May 15, Xingxing City on May 12, Yangmei Hengtong on May 15, listening to Bohua and Sierbang load reduction in the week. Pucheng energy integration device has been restarted.

The traditional downstream operating rate has dropped slightly.

The traditional downstream comprehensive operating rate continued to decline slightly this week. As of the week of May 23, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 35.1%, and that of acetic acid was 85.7%. The operating rate of focus MTBE was 61.7%. The operating rate of DMF was 39.6%.

New contracts and pending orders have fallen sharply.

The number of newly signed orders and orders to be issued fell sharply during the week. on the one hand, the high price suppressed the demand for methanol, on the other hand, the traditional demand in the mainland gradually entered the off-season, and the willingness to prepare goods downstream was not high. Judging from the pending order data, the decline in the northwest region is more obvious, with weaker demand leading to a weakening of the mainland last week.

Port inventory goes to warehouse again

The port continues to go to the warehouse.

This week, the port inventory is 53.52 million tons, and the port negotiable inventory is 159000 tons. This week, the port inventory continues to go to the warehouse, mainly due to some factors such as the lack of demand for air-filling orders in the paper market. With the recent parking of a number of MTO devices in eastern China, port demand has plummeted, and arrival at the port has increased this week, and inventory is expected to turn to inventory this week.

Inventories of mainland companies increased slightly last week, although mainland maintenance is still at a high level, but as traditional demand gradually enters the off-season and suppressed by high methanol prices, demand weakens and accumulates slightly last week. This week, the mainland overhaul is too much, but the demand is gradually weakening, the mainland is expected to maintain low inventory.

Removal of MTO enterprise inventory

Olefin enterprise inventory went to the warehouse substantially last week, because some olefin enterprises stopped and sold raw materials, but the raw material inventory of traditional enterprises in the mainland increased. Last week, the volume of goods in Taicang fell, mainly due to the low supply of negotiable goods in the port, and the transaction was obviously suppressed.

Arrival at port is on the low side

The forecast for arrival in Hong Kong this week is still small and the volume in early June remains on the low side. From May 24 to June 9, China imported shipments of 492000-500000 tons, of which Jiangsu estimated that imported shipments would arrive at 268000-270000 tons, South China estimated that 50, 000-60, 000 tons, Zhejiang estimated that 122000-130000 tons, and the mainland still estimated that 52000-60, 000 tons of imported cargo would arrive at Hong Kong. Under the background of low imports, the process of port inventory accumulation is still slow.

The base difference falls back at a high level.

The main contract-East China base difference high drop, with the coastal extraction of methanol olefin plant more parking, the spot tight situation slightly alleviated, the port base difference high drop.

In terms of monthly difference, the 9-1 price difference fell slightly, which was slightly higher due to the tight spot performance, but as the near-end expectations weakened after the increase in olefin parking, the monthly difference also followed the downward trend, and continued to pay attention to inventory changes in the short term. whether the inventory is tired or not has become the key to the weakening of the monthly difference.

The low spread of PP-3MA rebounded.

上周PP-3MA价差低位回升但仍处于偏低水平，近期由于烯烃低利润导致烯烃装置停车降负增多，甲醇需求转弱预期下价格承压，但当前甲醇库存仍偏低导致甲醇端跌幅不大，PP-3MA价差向上修复的空间有限，短期继续关注累库预期下PP-3MA价差的做扩。

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　　联系人：贾瑞斌

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