freespinhouseoffun2019| Everbright Futures: May 15 Nonferrous Metals Daily

Copper:

The price of copper went up and down overnight. On the macro level, PPI in the United States rose 2% in April compared with the same period last year.Freespinhouseoffun20190.2%, the growth rate reached a 12-month high, and the market continued to cut interest rate expectations. Powell said in a speech last night that the inflation data in the first quarter had reduced his confidence, which made it impossible for the Fed to give whether or when it could cut interest rates. It needs to wait for more evidence of interest rate cuts and pay attention to the US CPI data released tonight. Domestically, the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds will help boost market sentiment. In terms of fundamentals, domestic TC prices fell to negative, indicating the current tension in the copper concentrate market, which also deepened concerns about the supply side, but actual output may be higher than expected in the second quarter with sufficient crude copper and anode plates. With the successive release of inflation data in the United States, there has been some instability in sentiment in overseas financial markets and swings in macro sentiment. From a fundamental point of view, supply and demand under high copper prices have gradually moved towards negative feedback, and the deviation between expectations and reality continues, which will also restrict the upward space for copper prices. In addition, comex copper rising water is significantly higher than LME under the lack of US inventory, so investors in internal and external arbitrage should pay attention to avoid risk.

Nickel & stainless steel:

Overnight LME nickel fell 0.68%, Shanghai nickel fell 0.67%. On the inventory side, LME nickel stocks increased by 348 tons to 80814 tons yesterday, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5 tons to 20714 tons. From the point of view of the discount, the LME0-March discount remained negative, while the imported nickel discount remained at-350 yuan / ton. In terms of stainless steel, the domestic benchmark price of Indonesian nickel mine rose at the cost end, while the performance of nickel and iron prices was strong. Last week, affected by festivals and shipments, inventory levels increased slightly. In May, crude stainless steel production was 3.3403 million tons, an increase of 3.7% month-on-month. In terms of the new energy industry chain, the growth rate of intermediate imports accelerated, the three-way scheduling slowed down in May, and the demand for nickel sulfate may be weaker, but the cost side is still running strongly for the time being. Under the influence of the macro environment and Russian nickel events superimposed by contradictions in some parts of the industrial chain, nickel prices will still be high.

Alumina & electrolytic aluminum:

Overnight alumina concussion is weak, overnight AO2406 closed at 3661 yuan / ton, down 1.85%, positions reduced by 1420 to 32385 hands. Shanghai aluminum concussion bias, overnight AL2406 closed at 20440 yuan / ton, down 0.85%. Reduce the position by 2606 hands and 157600 hands. Spot aspect, SMM alumina comprehensive price continues to rise to 3704 yuan / ton. Spot aluminum ingot discount expanded to 70 yuan / ton, Foshan A00 quoted up to 20460 yuan / ton, Wuxi A00 quoted discount 30 yuan / ton, downstream aluminum bar processing fees Linyi, Henan stable, Wuxi Xinjiang Guangdong Baotou Nanchang down 30-160 yuan / ton; aluminum rod 1A60 down 50 yuan / ton, 6Universe 8 series processing fees increased by 70 yuan / ton; aluminum alloy ADC12 and A380 stable, A356 and ZLD102/104 increased by 50 yuan / ton. The positive space of alumina period is still there, but with the backlog of warehouses, the range of spot discount converges faster, and it is expected that the spot spot will catch up with the uplink and futures shock adjustment in the short term. Under the Southwest Electrolytic Aluminum resuming production and accelerating stock preparation demand, there is still upward power in the follow-up of the market. The high price of electrolytic aluminum suppresses the downstream purchasing enthusiasm and start-up performance, which forms a certain pressure on the rhythm of removing storage. However, there is little contradiction in the fundamentals, and the state has once again put forward policies such as stimulating consumption and lifting multi-land purchase restrictions and promoting the real estate market, and macro sentiment once again gives aluminum prices an upward boost.Freespinhouseoffun2019We maintain that double aluminum is easy to rise, difficult to fall, and strong shock. Continue to pay attention to alumina positive sleeve space and variety price difference space.

Tin:

The main force of Shanghai tin rose 1.18% to 273160 yuan / ton, and the tin futures warehouse receipt was 17021 tons, an increase of 103 tons over the previous day. LME tin rose 1.48 percent to US $33340 / ton, while tin stocks increased by 75 tons to 4835 tons. Spot market, for 2406, Yunxi Shengshui 200,500 yuan / ton, Yunzi discount 0500 yuan / ton, small brand discount 500,700 yuan / ton. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-1030 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread-880 yuan / ton, Shanghai-London ratio 8.24. The turnover of 5x14 Indonesian JFX is 50 tons, and that of 5Universe 13 Indonesian ICDX is 50 tons. In May, the cumulative turnover of the two major exchanges is 800t. The inventory in the domestic society is still accumulating, the inventory is tired to a very high level, but the storage speed has not eased, and the hidden inventory in the industrial chain is almost obvious. However, over the past month, due to the sharp slowdown in the recovery and removal of Indonesian exports, although the rise in overseas spot water is still high, it also shows that overseas consumption is not as good as previously expected. And the output data investigated by the domestic tripartite institutions are approaching the high levels in recent years, so we need to wait for the customs to announce the imported ore volume in April before it can be logically verified. In the short term, there are signs of microcosmic deterioration, and prices may fluctuate in a high and wide range.

Zinc:

The main force of zinc in Shanghai fell 0.5% to 23670 yuan / ton, and zinc futures warehouse receipts were 79486 tons, an increase of 1483 tons over the previous day. LME zinc fell 0.30% to US $2988.5 / tonne, with zinc stocks of 250950 tonnes, down 450t. In the spot market, the discount of Shanghai Zinc to 2406 is around 80,100 yuan / ton, and the average price is 0.15 yuan / ton; the discount of Guangdong Zinc to Shanghai Zinc 2406 is 75-90 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai; the discount of Tianjin Zinc to 2406 is around 50-90 yuan / ton, and the price of Tianjin is 10 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-55 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread-30 yuan / ton, Shanghai-Lun ratio 7.92. Domestic and foreign supply is gradually recovering, while demand overseas performance is sluggish, the latest domestic social finance data feedback real estate and infrastructure demand performance is poor. Zinc as a whole is in a surplus pattern, the upward power is insufficient, the upper pressure level pays attention to 24000 yuan / ton, and zinc is expected to show a higher probability of concussion in the short term.

Industrial silicon:

On the 14th, the industrial silicon shock was weak, with the main force 2406 closing at 11740 yuan / ton, down 1.76% on the day, with positions reduced by 9131 to 68000 hands. Spot continued to stabilize, Baichuan reference price of 13362 yuan / ton, stable compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the price range of # 553 is stable at 12800-13500 yuan / ton, and the price range of # 421 is stable at 13550-14050 yuan / ton. The lowest delivery price is 11750 yuan / ton, and the spot discount is up to 100 yuan / ton. Silicon factories try to sell goods at a higher price after the festival, and the mood of receiving goods downstream is better than that before the festival, but it is relatively limited, and the overall tendency is higher than that of low grade. As the 06 contract is coming to an end, the funds have the intention of avoiding risks and leaving the market, and the sentiment of buying up or down downstream is dominant, which is expected to lead to a short-term rebound in futures prices. However, there is still no bright spot in the current demand, the southwest region once again shows the intention to resume production, the fundamentals are expected to continue to be weak, it is difficult to support a sustained rise in the market, and the possibility of a subsequent return to weak shocks is even higher. Investors are advised to manage their positions well. the demand for changing positions can be carried out in advance.

Lithium carbonate:

Lithium carbonate futures 2407 contract fell 2.05 per cent to about 105000 yuan / ton yesterday. In terms of spot prices, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 500 yuan / ton to 109300 yuan / ton, industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell by 750 yuan / ton to 106000 yuan / ton, and the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide remained at 99500 yuan / ton, with a base difference of about 4250 yuan / ton. In terms of warehouse receipts, warehouse receipts increased by 480 tons to 23783 tons yesterday. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production is expected to increase 14.7% month-on-month to 60700 tons in May, while Chilean customs data show that Chile exported about 22900 tons of lithium carbonate to China in April, a month-on-month comparison of 42.27% and 162.25% compared with the same period last year. On the demand side, the total demand in the lower reaches of May is still slightly higher than that expected in April, but the previous price is relatively low, there is some replenishment in the lower reaches, the proportion of customers and supplies is rising, and the purchasing willingness of some positive manufacturers is also weakened. the terminal is expected to be encouraged by the trade-in policy. Environmental protection issues have aroused renewed concern, the cost of extracting lithium from mica is expected to increase, auction prices and lithium ore prices are still slightly supported, but overseas mineral prices have declined slightly, while the overall spot supply tends to be loose, warehouse receipt inventory and social inventory continue to increase, without a strong driver, prices may be less volatile.

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