games747bingo| CPI year-on-year growth fell, expanded domestic demand intensive deployment promoted
The National Bureau of Statistics released the latest CPI and PPI data on the 11th. Affected by the seasonal decline of post-holiday consumer demand, the overall adequacy of market supply and other factors.Games747bingoThe year-on-year growth rate of CPI slowed down in March.Games747bingoAffected by the falling prices of domestic commodities such as coal and steel, the year-on-year decline in PPI has slightly expanded, and the contradiction of insufficient domestic demand has been highlighted.
As an important measure to stabilize investment and promote consumption this year, a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods are being intensively deployed and promoted. On the same day, the Information Office of the State Council held a regular policy briefing, and six ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and Construction, the Ministry of Commerce, and the General Administration of Market Supervision introduced the key work in the next phase.
Zhao Chenxin, vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the market space for large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in is very huge. It can not only promote consumption and investment, effectively enhance economic vitality, but also increase advanced production capacity, promote energy saving and carbon reduction, reduce safety risks, and achieve high-quality development. It benefits both the enterprises and the people, bringing development opportunities for enterprises and meeting the growing needs of the people for a better life at the same time.
Domestic demand is still insufficient.
CPI rose 0% in March from a year earlier.Games747bingo.1%, down 0% from the previous month.Games747bingo.6 percentage points, down 1.0% from the previous month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.6% from a year earlier, keeping a modest rise.
Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the year-on-year decline in CPI growth was mainly affected by lower prices for food and travel services. Among them, food prices fell 2.7% from the same period last year, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over the previous month. The prices of fresh vegetables and pork fell 1.3% and 2.4% respectively from 2.9% and 0.2% last month.
Non-food prices rose 0.7% in March from a year earlier, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among non-food, service prices rose 0.8%, down 1.1 percentage points, mainly because the prices of travel services fell more, of which the increase in tourism prices fell to 6.0% from 23.1% last month, and air ticket prices fell by 14.7% from 20.8% last month.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said that in March, CPI maintained positive growth for two consecutive months compared with the same period last year, but the rate of increase fell sharply from last month and exceeded market expectations. There are two main reasons: first, after the Spring Festival, food and tourism consumption fell seasonally, the prices of food such as pork and fresh vegetables fell, and tourism and air ticket prices fell sharply, which is the direct reason why CPI fell sharply in March compared with the previous month, and the year-on-year increase dropped significantly. Second, affected by the scar effect of the epidemic and the downturn in the property market, residents' consumer confidence is weak and lack of demand is the root cause of low prices during this period of time.
Pang Ming, chief economist of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China region, analyzed that CPI may still fluctuate at a low level in the short term, but throughout the year, under the background of improving the quality, expansion, efficiency, and coordination of macro policies, and under the condition of continuous recovery and improvement of economic kinetic energy and the endogenous driving force of the main body of the market, the inflation center will gradually repair in fluctuations and return to the normal level. The probability of gradual and moderate recovery of CPI in stability is further improved.
For PPI, with the resumption of post-holiday industrial production in March, the supply of industrial products was relatively adequate. PPI fell 0.1% month-on-month, narrowing the decline compared with the previous month, and 2.8% year-on-year, slightly expanding the decline. In the March PPI year-on-year change, the tail-warping impact was about-2.3%, and the new impact of this year's price change was about-0.5%.
Among the major industries, prices in the coal mining and washing industry fell by 15.0% compared with the same period last year, the prices of non-metallic mineral products fell by 8.1%, and the prices of ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing fell by 7.2%. The declines in all three industries were larger than last month. The prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products fell 6.3 per cent, electrical machinery and equipment fell 4.3 per cent, and oil, coal and other fuel processing industries fell 4.2 per cent, all of which were narrower than last month. The price of the non-ferrous metal smelting and Calendering industry increased by 0.6% from 0.2% last month.
CICC Macro Research said that the rise and fall of black and non-ferrous metals, building materials and oil prices in March highlighted the recovery differentiation between internal and external demand, the old economy and the new economy. Specifically, black prices generally fell, blast furnace start-up after the festival, hot metal output is still falling, steel prices are lower, coking coal production restrictions have not changed the price fatigue, building materials prices continue to fall. While the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, the global manufacturing sector rebounds to boost exports, domestic demand for new energy remains strong, non-ferrous prices rise, while OPEC+ extends additional production cuts, domestic copper smelters jointly cut production, and supply adjustment is expected to rise.
Wang Qing analyzed that international crude oil prices rose in March, but affected by factors such as the decline in real estate investment, the prices of domestic leading commodities such as steel, cement, and coal were weak, and PPI still maintained a downward trend month-on-month in that month, with a year-on-year decline. After entering the second quarter, with the implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth, especially the overall promotion of the "three major projects" and the overall upward trend in international commodity prices, the year-on-year decline in PPI is expected to return to a faster narrowing process from April onwards, and is expected to return to positive growth around the middle of the year. Generally speaking, whether PPI can maintain positive growth in the second half of the year and whether the cumulative PPI of the whole year can be corrected over the same period last year will mainly depend on the follow-up trend of the domestic real estate industry and the progress of the implementation of various measures to stabilize growth.
Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Caixin Research Institute, predicts that the decline in PPI in April will narrow to-2.4%, which may gradually narrow during the year, but there is a high probability that negative growth will continue. First, the tail-warping factor of PPI in April is 0.4% higher than that in March; second, due to factors such as the extension of the OPEC+ production reduction agreement and the strong resilience of the US economy, the price center of crude oil is likely to rise in April; and third, the demand for infrastructure and "three major projects" is ahead, which will support domestic industrial product prices in the short term, but the driving force for recovery will face the constraints of the real estate downturn. It is expected that under the joint support of the low base effect and the rebound in demand, the decline in PPI will continue to narrow during the year, but it will take time for the vivid energy to return, and there is a high probability that negative growth will continue for the whole year.
Do a good job in the policy combination
In March this year, the State Council issued the Action Plan for promoting large-scale equipment upgrading and Consumer goods Trade-in (hereinafter referred to as the "Action Plan").
The scale of equipment investment in the national industrial field accounts for a large proportion of the overall equipment investment. In 2023, the scale of equipment investment in the national industrial sector reached 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7 percent over the same period last year, accounting for more than 70 percent of the equipment investment in the whole society.
A few days ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the implementation Plan for promoting equipment Renewal in the Industrial Field, focusing on promoting a new type of industrialization, focusing on large-scale equipment upgrading, implementing the project of technological transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, focusing on digital transformation and green upgrading, persisting in the promotion of marketization, standardization, and integrated updating of software and hardware, and promoting the high-end, intelligent and green development of the manufacturing industry. By 2027, we will strive to achieve an increase of more than 25% in equipment investment in the industrial sector compared with 2023.
Shan Zhongde, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the next step will focus on petrochemical, iron and steel, non-ferrous, building materials, machinery, automotive, light industry, textile, electronics and other key industries. we will carry out four major actions, namely, advanced equipment upgrading, digital transformation, green equipment promotion, and safety upgrading, to comprehensively promote equipment upgrading and technological transformation.
The field of construction and municipal is also one of the key areas of equipment renewal. The Ministry of Housing and Construction issued the implementation Plan for promoting the Renewal of Building and Municipal Infrastructure equipment, focusing on the renewal and renovation of equipment that has outstanding safety risks, backward technology and does not meet the relevant standards and regulations. the key tasks are the renewal of old residential elevators, the installation of elevators in existing houses, water supply, heating, sewage treatment, sanitation and building construction equipment. Building energy saving and LPG filling station transformation as well as urban lifeline project construction.
When it comes to the trade-in of consumer goods, Xu Xingfeng, director of the Department of Market Operation and Consumer Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce, said that for automobiles, old cars with high energy consumption, high emissions, long service life and safety risks are encouraged to be replaced with new energy vehicles or energy-efficient vehicles. In terms of household appliances, some household appliances have high water consumption and high energy consumption. at the same time, with the longer service life, there are aging accessories, safety risks and other problems. It is advocated to replace these products with low energy consumption and low water consumption. Home decoration, kitchen and bathroom, encourage more use of green, low-carbon products.
The Action Plan defines some specific measures to strengthen policy support from five aspects: increasing financial support, improving tax support, optimizing financial support, strengthening factor protection, and strengthening innovation support.
Large-scale equipment renewal is a complex system engineering, which should not only fully mobilize the initiative, enthusiasm and creativity of enterprises, but also give necessary incentives and guidance to promote equipment upgrading to form economies of scale. Fu Jinling, director of the Economic Construction Department of the Ministry of Finance, said at the briefing that the central finance will strengthen guidance and do a good job in policy "combination" from four aspects: the first is to strengthen the overall planning of capital policies; the second is to improve tax support policies; the third is to improve the government's green procurement policy; and the fourth is to strengthen the linkage of fiscal and financial policies.
Fu Jinling said that the above policies have both institutional arrangements and phased measures, which will help stimulate the endogenous driving force for the upgrading of enterprises and promote economic transformation and upgrading. In the next step, the Ministry of Finance, together with relevant departments, will promptly elaborate fiscal and tax policies and measures to promote the orderly development of large-scale equipment renewal work.
Tian Zhiyu, director of the Sustainability Center of the Energy Research Institute of the China Macroeconomic Academy, said that attention should be paid to considering the affordability of enterprises and consumer acceptance, and relying on the market to provide diversified supply and services to meet the needs of upgrading and differentiation. In addition, the equipment renewal action should focus on the field of people's livelihood, and promote the transformation of building energy conservation by increasing the renovation of old residential areas and upgrading elevators of old residential buildings, so as to promote the whole society to achieve energy conservation and carbon reduction, and improve the living comfort of residents. to ensure that the broad masses of people get real benefits.
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