shiningkingmegaways| Iron ore prices rebounded to 847 yuan/ton in April, analysis and forecast future trends

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Iron ore prices rebounded in April, falling to 728 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and then quickly rebounded to 847 yuan / ton. The market is divided on the future trend of prices, but the macro news is good, the economic ties between China and the United States are close, and the expectation of policy production control and production reduction is enhanced. On the supply side, the total volume of global iron ore shipments has declined, but it is expected to increase significantly after the Australian hurricane; on the demand side, steel mills' profits have improved, the enthusiasm for resuming production has increased, and the demand for downstream products has rebounded steadily. Iron ore fundamentals marginal improvement, replenishment demand before May Day to support the spot, but the degree of recovery on the demand side needs to be concerned. Iron ore prices have rebounded above $110, increasing valuation pressure and short-term caution.

Text of news flash

Iron ore prices rebounded in April, but the market is still divided on the future.

In April, iron ore market experienceShiningkingmegawaysThere was a rebound. At the beginning of the month, the price fell to 728 yuan / ton, but then rebounded quickly, reaching a maximum of 847 yuan / ton. Market sentiment has improved, but there are still divergent views on the future direction of prices.

Macro news has a positive impact on the market. Us Treasury Secretary Yellen said that he did not seek to decouple from China and that China and the United States had close economic ties. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Hebei provincial government have held iron and steel industry meetings to promote the smooth operation of the industry. Market policy to control production and reduce productionShiningkingmegawaysExpectations have strengthened, contributing to a rebound in prices.

On the supply side, the total amount of global iron ore shipments fell due to weather factors. After the Australian hurricane disturbance comes to an end, the shipping level is expected to increase significantly. The utilization rate of domestic mine capacity has been restored, and the output is higher than that of the same period last year. Port inventory increased compared with the same period last year, but the cumulative slope slowed down.

On the demand side, the profits of steel mills have improved and the enthusiasm for resuming production has increased. Hot metal production rose slightly for two weeks in a row, but still decreased compared with the same period last year. Downstream timber demand, thread inventory to speed up, hot coil supply and demand is better. Steel demand is expected to continue to pick up slowly, but the peak and persistence of demand still need to be observed.

The spot price of the port rebounded and the transaction activity increased. Steel mills rigid demand high price replenishment enthusiasm is good, the US dollar spot market turnover continues to improve. In the aspect of basis, 05 basis regression and 5pm 9 price range concussion are the main factors.

Taken together, the margin of iron ore fundamentals has improved. The replenishment demand before May Day has phased support to the spot, but the degree of recovery on the demand side is still a concern. Iron ore prices have rebounded above $110, increasing valuation pressure. We need to pay attention to the macro-favorable support and the speed of getting rid of the stock. There may be opportunities to buy after a short-term pullback, but the overall trend is wide and volatile, so we need to be cautious.

Hexun self-selected Stock Writer risk Tip: the above content is only the views of the author or guest, does not represent any position of Hexun, and does not constitute any investment advice related to Hexun. Before making any investment decision, investors should consider the risk factors related to investment products according to their own circumstances and consult professional investment advisers if necessary. Hexun tries its best but cannot confirm the authenticity, accuracy and originality of the above content, and Hexun does not make any guarantee or commitment.

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