blueleobonus| The price has risen four consecutive times, and many people love it! This stock continued to rise and fall
Every reporter Xu Shuai every editor Lu Xiangyong Zhang Haini
The "second brother" is "favored" again.
According to agricultural production and economic informationBlueleobonusOn May 20, the price of pigs in most parts of the country has risen to more than 8 yuan per jin, and the highest price has risen to 8.Blueleobonus.3 yuan / jin, the lowest price rises to 7.3 yuan / jin. It is not only the pig price that is favored, but also the listed companies of pig enterprises, whose share prices have risen continuously.
Combining the monthly sales data of listed companies, this round of pig price rise began in January this year, achieving "four consecutive increases" every month. The decline in the number of sows and other deep-seated reasons affect supply and demand, but in the eyes of industry insiders, the sustainability of price increases remains to be seen.
Pig prices have risen for four months in a row.
Pig prices continued to rise in mid-May.
According to agricultural production and economic information, the price of pigs in most parts of the country has risen to more than 8 yuan / jin on May 20, with the highest price rising to 8.3 yuan / jin and the lowest price rising to 7.3 yuan / jin.
With the rise in pig prices, the share prices of A-share listed companies have also performed.
As of the midday close on May 21, Zhenghong Technology has two boards. New Wufeng and Delis both rose more than 5%, Muyuan shares set a new high of 50.07 yuan per share this year, and the market value of Wen's shares approached 150 billion yuan.
A reporter from the Daily Economic News noted that compared with the rise in pig prices, the share prices of listed companies have responded in advance. Judging from the monthly sales data disclosed by listed companies, there have been signs of an increase in March this year.
Take the April monthly sales data disclosed by Muyuan shares as an example, the average pig sales prices from January to February, March and April this year were 13.84 yuan / kg (13.42 yuan / kg in December last year), 14.24 yuan / kg and 14.8 yuan / kg respectively.
New Hope disclosed sales data in February, with monthly sales prices of 13.3 yuan / kg, 13.86 yuan / kg, 14.34 yuan / kg and 15.13 yuan / kg respectively.
From these two sets of data, we can see that pig prices did not rise suddenly in May, but have continued to rise since January this year. The price of live pigs sold by Muyuan shares in April was more than 10% higher than that in December last year.
The share price of Muyuan shares rose in February, almost synchronized with the current round of rising pig prices. It should be noted that the rise in the share prices of pig enterprises has also been accompanied by the disclosure season of annual reports. last year, A-share pig enterprises lost a total of more than 10 billion yuan, and some enterprises' debt ratio even exceeded 70%.
Even so, when the expectation of a rebound in pig prices emerged, the rise in the share prices of pig companies felt that they had run out of profits.
Huatai Securities Research report said that pig prices have continued to rise recently, from 14.8 yuan / kg before May Day to 15.4 yuan / kg on May 17, and the rise in pig prices accelerated over the weekend. Yongyi monitors that the average price of live pigs has risen by about 0.38 yuan / kg over the weekend. As of May 19, the average price of live pigs across the country is about 15.8 yuan / kg, and the price of pigs in many places has exceeded 16 yuan / kg. Looking to the future, short-term hurdle / second education or continuous entry into the market to form a strong backing, the medium-term supply and demand pattern continues to be tight or drive pig prices easy to rise and difficult to fall. At the same time, the year-on-year increase in CPI expanded in April, and the contribution of pork changed from negative to positive. Pork prices are expected to continue to rise in the following months of this year compared with the same period last year, which will correspondingly lead to a continued positive contribution of pork prices to CPI. According to the monthly pig price highs of about 18 yuan / kg and 20 yuan / kg in 2024, the number of points affecting CPI at the high pork price may be 0.75% to 1.1%.
Some pig enterprises only make a monthly profit in April.
For the recent rise in pig prices, Zhuochuang Information Pig Industry analyst Rong Zhifa told the Daily Economic News that the current rise in pig prices is mainly in the northern market, while the rise in most markets in the south is relatively slow. Rong Zhifa said that the heat of secondary fattening in the northern market is gradually rising, and the intercepting part should have gone to the slaughtering end of the pig source, the actual supply gap in the market has increased, and the acquisition resistance downstream has increased, supporting the upward shock of pig prices. Compared with the rapid rise in pig prices in March, pig prices in the Southern Market are not dominant in mid-May.
However, judging from some changing industry indicators, the signal of rising pig prices is actually quite obvious. At the end of October last year, the price of eliminated sows plunged 20% month-on-month, more than 50% lower than the same period last year. The decline in the price of eliminated sows indicates that more sows are sold, and sows affect the cycle after 10 months, that is, August and September this year.
In March this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Village issued the implementation Plan for the Regulation and Control of Pig production capacity (revised in 2024), which adjusted the national target for the normal number of breeding sows from 41 million to 39 million. Judging from the stock of breeding sows, at the end of March, there were 39.92 million breeding sows in the country, down 7.3 percent from the same period last year, equivalent to 102.4 percent of the normal population of 39 million, which is in the green and reasonable area of production capacity regulation. Judging from the fattening cycle and the seasonal strengthening law of consumption, the relief signal of loose supply in the pig market is gradually released.
In addition, depressed pig prices force pig enterprises to continue to reduce costs. Even so, large pig companies barely made a monthly profit in April. According to the latest research summary of New Hope, the company made an overall monthly profit at the level of pig price of about 15.1 yuan / kg in April.
The cost of large pig enterprises determines the marginal cost of the industry. The management of Muyuan shares also said that the view of "overcapacity in the pig market" is now somewhat outdated.
Although pig prices have warmed up, industry insiders believe that the sustainability of price increases remains to be seen.
Rong Zhifa said that at present, it is in the off-season of consumption, and the fertilizer price gap has narrowed. In the later stage, as the temperature rises, the demand for fattening pigs may continue to weaken, the advantage of large-weight pigs is no longer available, and practitioners in the south may not be as active in fattening as in the north. The fluctuation range of pig prices is relatively limited. As the current level of pig stock is still high, the heat of short-term secondary fattening in the southern market may not be significantly improved. In the case of limited boost on the demand side, the price of live pigs in the southern market has no supporting point, which may play a drag on the national pig price. From the point of view of trade flow, the current heat of secondary fattening in the northern market remains unabated. With the widening price gap between the north and the south, the supply of standard pigs in the southern market is transferred northward into the secondary fattening channel and slaughtering channel. While alleviating the supply pressure in the north, it will also have a short-term negative impact on pig prices, and the increase in the north may be limited. According to what Rong Zhifa has learned, there is a decline in orders after the demand side passively follows the rise, and the subsequent national pig prices have limited power to rise again, or stop rising and return to stable adjustment.
Reporter | Xu Shuai Editor | Lu Xiangyong Zhang Haini du Hengfeng
Proofread | Wang Yuelong
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