megamillionsjackpotamount| The track has entered its golden five years! Lin Yuan personally attended the meeting for research!

Stock speculation to see Jin Kirin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap the potential of the theme opportunity!

Wen, Liu Zenglu

Yesterday, we talked in detail.MegamillionsjackpotamountReal estate and industrial chain building materialsMegamillionsjackpotamountInvestment opportunities, today's market is around this big plate interpretation, a number of constituent stocks set off a rising tide. Real estate is a track that we have mentioned many times this year, so the investment logic will not be repeated. Interested "old investment friends" can browse past articles.

Today, we are going to talk about another big track-traditional Chinese medicine.

Because we found that Lin Yuan, chairman of Shenzhen Linyuan Investment, appeared at the shareholders' meeting of "Yomao" Panzai Yi on the 20th, once again dispelling the rumors in the market that Lin Yuan "withdrew" Pian Tsai Yi.

In fact, during the year, after the previous two rounds of rising market, the overall trend of the traditional Chinese medicine sector has been revised back recently, but the mainstream view is still very optimistic about the development prospects of the industry, that the track has entered the golden five years, there will be a big market in the future.

The "double Financial report", which has just come to an end, shows that the total revenue of the traditional Chinese medicine sector as a whole reached 3721 in 2023.Megamillionsjackpotamount.23 billion yuan, an increase of 5% over the same period last yearMegamillionsjackpotamount.94%; the net profit returned to the home was 33.589 billion yuan, an increase of 34.27% over the same period last year, which is the sector with the highest profit growth in the pharmaceutical industry (see Table 1).

However, due to the strong demand and high base of four types of cold and fever drugs and traditional Chinese medicine tonic after the opening of the epidemic in the first quarter of 2023, the profits of the traditional Chinese medicine sector were slightly under pressure in the first quarter of this year. During the reporting period, the overall operating income of the plate was 101.199 billion yuan, down 0.81% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 12.721 billion yuan, down 7.9% from the same period last year. However, with the subsequent weakening of the high base effect, the revenue and profit growth of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises are also expected to continue to rise. And statistics show that in the past two reporting periods, there are still 15 traditional Chinese medicine stocks to achieve sustained growth in revenue and profits (see Table 2).

At the same time, statistics show that most traditional Chinese medicine enterprises attach great importance to investor returns. 73 traditional Chinese medicine companies and 56 companies implement or plan to implement cash dividends in 2023. It is estimated that the total dividend of the plate as a whole is about 20.3 billion yuan, and the proportion of cash dividends of Datang Pharmaceutical, Wauhua Pharmaceutical (rights protection) and other companies is more than 90%. (see Table 3, the complete list of cash dividends exceeding 50% can also be obtained from the staff who contacted you by scanning the code.)

In addition, since the second quarter of 2023, the valuation level of the pharmaceutical sector as a whole and sub-sectors has continued to decline. According to the latest closing price statistics, the overall dynamic price-earnings ratio of the pharmaceutical sector is about 27.2 times, and that of the traditional Chinese medicine sector is about 26.28 times.

Soochow Securities said that it is strongly bullish on the market of traditional Chinese medicine in the second quarter. First of all, with the pursuit of deterministic high dividend stocks in the current market, high certainty assets such as low valuation and high dividend in the pharmaceutical sector are mainly focused on the field of traditional Chinese medicine. Secondly, the annual growth rate of the pharmaceutical sector in 2023 was low in the first quarter of 2023, especially after the opening of the epidemic in the first quarter of 2023, and the growth rate was relatively low in the first quarter of 2024 under the background of high base, but it is expected to accelerate significantly as the problem of high base is solved in the second and third quarters.

China Merchants Securities also believes that under the background of policies to encourage the inheritance and innovative development of traditional Chinese medicine, and with the landing of catalytic events such as the reform of state-owned enterprises and the catalogue of base drugs, the traditional Chinese medicine sector still has the following three types of enterprises: 1. OTC enterprises with strong channel, brand and product capabilities, such as China Resources Sanjiu, Dong E E Jiao, Taiji Group, Yunnan Baiyao, Lingrui Pharmaceutical, Jiang traditional Chinese Medicine, etc. 2. Traditional Chinese medicine enterprises with innovative ability and rich research pipelines, such as Yiling Pharmaceutical, Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, Tianshili Pharmaceutical, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, Zali Pharmaceutical, etc.; 3. Chinese time-honored brands with deep moat, and have expected targets for the reform of state-owned enterprises, such as Tongrentang, Panzaixian, Darentang, Kunming Pharmaceutical Group, etc.

Prior to this, Peng Zu, the leader of the declassification industry, also made it clear that the traditional Chinese medicine track has entered the golden five years. The logic is:

1. The general direction of encouraging and supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine has never changed, playing a series of "combined punches", and the industry has entered the stage of high-quality development.

2. The dividend yield of traditional Chinese medicine ranks in the forefront of the pharmaceutical segment, and it is the target of high dividend. Under the steady growth of performance, the high dividend has a certain persistence.

3. The traditional Chinese medicine sector still has catalysis in the future: although the catalogue of base drugs is late, it will come, and the adjustment of the catalogue will bring performance flexibility. Therefore, traditional Chinese medicine is one of the few slow bull market sectors in the consumer side, and there are also funds to follow.

We have won 100 opportunities for face-to-face communication with Pengzu. Investors can scan the QR code below for investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical track or other areas.

In fact, Chinese medicine stocks have always been the hearts of institutional investors and investment bosses of all sides. According to the statistics of institutional positions at the end of the first quarter of this year, Zhongcang Dong E E Jiao has more than 100 institutional products, and Zhongcang Jichuan Pharmaceutical, China Resources Sanjiu, Pian Tsai Kui, Tongrentang and other companies also have more than 30 institutional products.

Lin Yuan, chairman of Lin Yuan Investment, which has been very optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine industry for a long time, although his management products have dropped from the top 10 shareholders list since the fourth quarter of 2020, he has also said publicly that he has only split his position. Recently, as listed companies began to hold annual shareholders' meetings in 2023, Lin Yuan also came to the scene and took photos, indicating that there were many people at the scene (see figure 1). It further confirms the fact that he is still a major shareholder of the company.

According to the first quarterly report, the Gao Yilinshan No. 1 Yuanwang Fund managed by Feng Liu was the fifth largest shareholder in Tongrentang with a position of 13.8 million shares at the end of the first quarter, and looking at historical data, Feng Liu first appeared on the list of major shareholders of the company at the end of the third quarter of 2020. it has been holding positions for 15 reporting periods so far. However, since the establishment of the position, Feng Liu has increased his position only once in the fourth quarter of 2020, and has since carried out several operations to reduce his holdings, and the company's share price has risen more than 70% since its heavy position was made public (see figure 2).

(the mention of individual stocks in the article is only for example analysis and does not make trading recommendations. )

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