onpatrollivebingo| The idea of unilateral shocks of soybean meal is strong: buying soybean meal and selling oil is arbitrage and holding, and pigs continue to hold more orders for a long time

Newsletter summary

The volatility of soybean meal futures is strong.OnpatrollivebingoIt is recommended to buy meal and sell oil; live pigs are held only for a long time.OnpatrollivebingoSpot market bullish; egg futures short-term callback risk, it is recommended to enter bargain; corn futures upward, the spot market bullish sentiment is strong, arbitrage opportunities appear.

Text of news flash

[soybean meal market volatility is strong, investment strategy recommends holding arbitrage position]

Recently, affected by torrential rains in Brazil and Argentina, market concerns about soybean production have not abated, despite a downward trend in CBOT soybeans. The export sales of American beans are close to the lower limit of expectations, the export sales of American soybean meal are lower than expected, and the export sales of American soybean oil are in line with expectations. Domestically, soybean meal futures stick to a high position, the spot is slightly weak, and the basis is weak as a whole. As soybean crushing capacity rises, soybean and soybean meal stocks both rise, and market expectations of loose supply of soybean meal strengthen. The market turnover momentum slows down, the soybean meal demand is general, the downstream market operation is still dominated by buy-as-you-go. The cost factor has become the main driving force of futures market trading. From an operational point of view, investors can timely intervene in monthly arbitrage trading and hold arbitrage positions to buy meal and sell oil.

[pig price is affected by fluctuations in the surrounding market, long-term multiple orders can still be held]

Affected by the overall decline in the stock market and commodity markets, pig futures prices showed a near-strong and far-weak pattern, and the far-month contract closed at the Xiaoyin line. However, the performance of the spot market is still strong. With the rise of the average price of pigs in Henan and other areas, the bullish mood in the spot market is further heating up. At the technical level, spot prices rose and futures fell at the beginning of the week, which led to a stronger basis, futures rose in the middle of the week, and pig prices resumed upward. For investors, the short-term can focus on the 10-day and 20-day moving average to support prices, while long-term single holders should continue to maintain their positions.

[egg futures continue to fluctuate, short-term pullback risk needs to be vigilant]

Egg futures prices fluctuated slightly on Thursday, with the main 2409 contract rising slightly. The spot market stabilized as a whole, with a price correction in some sales areas. Although supply continues to increase and the trend is stable, spot egg prices are expected to rebound, boosted by seasonal demand in the third quarter. However, the short-term rainy season is not good for egg storage, and there is a downside risk in spot prices in mid-late May. Under the medium-and long-term multi-order strategy, investors should consider bargain entry and guard against short-term price pullbacks. Short-term traders should focus on band trading and pay close attention to the changes in spot prices and market sentiment.

[corn futures prices resume to rise, and the spot market remains strong]

On Thursday, the corn futures market showed a near-strong and far-weak pattern, despite the poor performance of the stock market and commodity markets as a whole, partly dragging down corn futures prices. In the spot market, the national corn price remains strong. The arrival volume of corn in the northern port increased slightly, but due to the upside-down phenomenon from the origin to the port, the enthusiasm of traders to deliver the goods was not high, and the arrival of the port was mainly contract grain. Rising costs prompted port traders to raise prices to stimulate the arrival of goods. The overall price of corn in the North China market is stable, and the market is still bullish. With the rise of corn market prices in sales areas, grass-roots grain sales in producing areas are basically over, the supply of corn for domestic trade begins to tighten, and traders have a strong willingness to raise prices because of their high costs. From a technical point of view, the corn September contract returned to the 2500 yuan mark, the rise in the spot market had a positive impact on the futures market, futures prices resumed upward, and the corn 9-1 price gap is expected to continue to expand.

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