blockchaininunity|山东黄金、紫金矿业：一季度全球央行净购金量同比增长，美债收益率难以突破3Q23高点，黄金股业绩看好
Newsletter summary
The price of gold fell 0. 0 during Labour Day holiday.Blockchaininunity.54%, copper and aluminum prices fell by 0.63% and 1.18% respectively. The amount of refinancing bonds issued in the United States has been maintained at 125 billion, and treasury bond buybacks have been launched for the first time in 20 years. The Fed QT Taper in June, interest rate hikes are expected to fade. The global central bank's net gold purchases increased year-on-year, and the Bank of Korea is considering medium-and long-term gold purchases. Non-farm data fluctuate and labor market gaps remain. Investment recommendations focus on gold stocks and Shandong gold, and risk tips include tightening monetary policy.
Text of news flash
[during the domestic Labour Day holiday, the performance of the international metal market varied, with the price of gold falling 0.54 per cent to 2294 yuan / ounce]
During the May Day holiday, the international metal market experienced fluctuations, with the London gold price falling 0.54 per cent to 2294 yuan per ounce. Meanwhile, LME copper and LME aluminum fell 0.63 per cent to $9914 per ton and 1.18 per cent to $2551 per ton, respectively.
[it is difficult for US bond yields to break through 3Q23 highs, and the Fed decides to keep interest rates unchanged]
The U.S. Treasury will be in the quarter from May to JulyBlockchaininunityThe amount of refinancing bonds issued was maintained at US $125 billion, in line with market expectations. The Federal Reserve decided in May to keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged, lowering the monthly redemption ceiling for Treasuries to $25 billion from June. Fed Chairman Colin Powell said the Fed's next move is unlikely to be to raise interest rates, which is expected to fade by the end of the year.
[non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 175000 in April, and the unemployment rate rose slightly]
Non-farm payrolls in the United States rose by 175000 in April, below expectations of 240000. The unemployment rate has risen slightly from a month earlier, but it is still below 4%. Wage growth has slowed down and the pressure on the inflationary side has gradually diminished.
[the global central bank's net gold purchases increased year on year in the first quarter of 2024, and the Bank of Korea is considering medium-and long-term gold purchases]
In the first quarter of 2024, net purchases by central banks around the world reached 290 tons, up 1% from a year earlier. The Bank of Korea said it was considering buying more gold in the medium to long term as foreign exchange reserves grew.
[the US economy is expanding without stagnation, and the prices of precious metals and industrial metals are moving in the same direction]
During the May Day holiday, the nominal interest rate of US debt 10Y fell by 19BP to 4.5%. The real interest rate of 10Y fell by 13BP to 2.15%. The US economy is resilient, the job market remains healthy, and inflation worries remain.
[investment suggestions: pay attention to gold stocks, copper and aluminum plates, suggest to pay attention to Shandong gold, Hunan gold, Zijin mining, Shenhuo shares, China Hongqiao, etc.]
The growth rate of the cost of self-production of gold stocks has slowed since 2023, and the performance is expected to be better this year. Copper in the domestic social inventory in the second and third quarter of the effective removal of the situation, the price center is expected to further rise. The expected difference of electrolytic aluminum plate is still large, so it is recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets.
[risk hint: the Fed's monetary policy is further tightened, the domestic copper and aluminum treasury is not as expected, and the domestic support policy in the second half of the year is not as expected]
Investors need to be wary of the risks of further tightening of Fed monetary policy, as well as the risk that domestic copper and aluminum will fall short of expectations and domestic support policies will fall short of expectations in the second half of the year.
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